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How to calculate the logistic EuroSCORE 

Roques F, Michel P, Goldstone AR, Nashef SA. The logistic EuroSCORE. Eur Heart J. 2003 May;24(9):882-3

Using the same risk factors as the additive model, the logistic regression version of the score (the “logistic EuroSCORE”) can be calculated.  For a given patient, the “logistic EuroSCORE” which is the predicted mortality according to the logistic regression equation, can be achieved with the following formula:

Predicted mortality =   e (βo + åbi Xi) / 1+ e (βo + åbi Xi)

where

e is the natural logarithm  = 2.718281828...

 βo is the constant of the logistic regression equation = -4.789594

 βi is the coefficient of the variable Xi in the logistic regression equation provided in the table below.

 Xi = 1 if a categorical risk factor is present and 0 if it is absent

 For age, Xi = 1 if patient age < 60; Xi increase by one point per year thereafter;

 hence  for age 59 or less Xi = 1, age 60 Xi = 2, age 61 Xi = 3, and so on.

 

Cardiologists and cardiac surgeons will be relieved to note that they do not have to face this complex calculation with every patient.

EuroSCORE (additive and logistic) can be calculated with ease using the online calculator on the EuroSCORE website.

 

 

Beta coefficients for the Logistic regression model of EuroSCORE in the 1995 pilot study

Patient-related factors Beta
Age

Continuous

 

0.0666354
Sex

female

 

0.3304052
Chronic pulmonary disease

longterm use of bronchodilators or steroids for lung disease

 

0.4931341
Extracardiac arteriopathy

any one or more of the following: claudication, carotid occlusion or >50% stenosis, previous or planned intervention on the abdominal aorta,limb arteries or carotids

 

0.6558917
Neurological dysfunction disease

severely affecting ambulation or day-to-day functioning

 

0.841626
Previous cardiac surgery

requiring opening of the pericardium

 

1.002625
Serum creatinine

>200m micromol/L preoperatively

 

0.6521653
Active endocarditis

patient still under antibiotic treatment for endocarditis at the time of surgery

 

1.101265
Critical preoperative state

any one or more of the following: ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation or aborted sudden death, preoperative cardiac massage, preoperative ventilation before arrival in the anaesthetic room,preoperative inotropic support, intraaortic balloon counterpulsation or preoperative acute renal failure (anuria or oliguria<10 ml/hour)

 

0.9058132
Cardiac-related factors Beta
Unstable angina

rest angina requiring iv nitrates until arrival in the anaesthetic room

 

0.5677075
LV dysfunction

moderate or LVEF30-50%

0.4191643

poor or LVEF <30

1.094443
Recent myocardial infarct

(<90 days)

 

0.5460218
Pulmonary hypertension

Systolic PA pressure>60 mmHg

0.7676924
Operation-related factors Beta
Emergency

carried out on referral before the beginning of the next working day

 
0.7127953
Other than isolated CABG

major cardiac procedure other than or in addition to CABG

 

0.5420364
Surgery on thoracic aorta

for disorder of ascending, arch or descending aorta

 

1.159787
Postinfarct septal rupture
 
 
1.462009

 

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